Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 53%. A win for Everton had a probability of 23.9% and a draw had a probability of 23.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.86%) and 2-0 (8.76%). The likeliest Everton win was 1-2 (6.27%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.