Premier League Gameweek 33
Apr 19, 2026 4.30pm
Etihad Stadium

Manchester City vs Arsenal - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Injuries & Suspensions

Form, Standings, Stats

Manchester City

All competitions
Last game
Apr 12, 2026 4.30pm
Chelsea 0 - 3 Man City
Goals scored
63
Top scorer
Phil Foden

Arsenal

All competitions
Last game
Apr 11, 2026 12.30pm
Arsenal 1 - 2 Bournemouth
Goals scored
62
Top scorer
Viktor Gyokeres

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Manchester City win with a probability of 41.61%. A win for Arsenal has a probability of 34.2% and a draw has a probability of 24.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (7.79%) and 2-0 (6.15%). The likeliest Arsenal win is 1-2 (8.33%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.19%).

Result

Manchester City 41.61% (-1.00)
Draw 24.15% (-0.05)
Arsenal 34.2% (+0.97)

Both Teams to Score: 

60.25% (+2.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 80.7% (+0.49)
Under 1.5 19.3% (-0.49)
Over 2.5 58.55% (+0.31)
Under 2.5 41.45% (-0.31)
Over 3.5 35.35% (+0.07)
Under 3.5 64.65% (-0.02)
Over 4.5 21.19% (+0.18)
Under 4.5 78.81% (-0.18)

First Half Winner

Manchester City 34.38% (-1.76)
Draw 38.3% (-0.08)
Arsenal 27.32% (+1.84)

Team To Score First

Manchester City 50.17% (-1.08)
No Goal 4.96% (-0.26)
Arsenal 44.87% (+1.33)

Corners

Over 8 50.53% (-1.97)
Equal 8 11.4% (-0.07)
Under 8 38.07% (+2.03)
Over 9 39.53% (-1.75)
Equal 9 10.99% (-0.23)
Under 9 49.47% (+1.97)
Over 10.5 29.75% (-1.43)
Under 10.5 70.25% (+1.43)

Manchester City Goals

Over 1.5 44.89% (-0.50)
Under 1.5 55.11% (+0.50)
Over 2.5 20.91% (-0.17)
Under 2.5 79.09% (+0.18)
Over 3.5 8.15% (-0.14)
Under 3.5 91.85% (+0.15)

Arsenal Goals

Over 0.5 69.59% (+0.66)
Under 0.5 30.41% (-0.67)
Over 1.5 38.78% (+1.06)
Under 1.5 61.22% (-1.06)
Over 2.5 16.48% (+0.70)
Under 2.5 83.52% (-0.69)
Over 3.5 5.61% (+0.27)
Under 3.5 94.39% (-0.27)

Score analysis

Manchester City 41.61%
Draw 24.16%
Arsenal 34.21%
Manchester City
2-1 @ 8.68% (-0.34)
1-0 @ 7.79% (-0.23)
2-0 @ 6.15% (-0.05)
3-1 @ 4.41% (-0.13)
3-0 @ 3.66% (+0.09)
3-2 @ 3.09% (-0.09)
Other @ 7.83% (-0.24)
Total : 41.61%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.19% (+0.10)
2-2 @ 6.09% (-0.07)
0-0 @ 4.96% (-0.26)
3-3 @ 1.6% (+0.11)
Other @ 0.32% (+0.09)
Total : 24.16%
Arsenal
1-2 @ 8.33% (+0.42)
0-1 @ 6.53% (-0.02)
0-2 @ 4.79% (+0.09)
1-3 @ 3.68% (+0.11)
2-3 @ 3.06% (+0.13)
0-3 @ 2.53% (+0.11)
Other @ 5.29% (+0.17)
Total : 34.21%

Head to Head

EFL Cup
Mar 22, 2026 4.30pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT Wembley Stadium
  • Riccardo Calafiori 65' yellowcard
  • Noni Madueke 66' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Martinelli 82' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Jesus 82' yellowcard
  • goal Nico O'Reilly 60'
  • goal Nico O'Reilly 64'
  • yellowcard Phil Foden 90'
Premier League
Sep 21, 2025 4.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Premier League Gameweek 24
Feb 2, 2025 4.30pm
5
1
HT : 1 0
FT Emirates Stadium
  • Martin Odegaard 2' goal
  • Jurrien Maduro 25' yellowcard
  • Thomas Partey 56' goal
  • Myles Lewis-Skelly 62' goal
  • Martin Odegaard 71' yellowcard
  • Kai Havertz 76' goal
  • Ethan Nwaneri 90'+3' goal
  • goal Erling Haaland 55'
Premier League Gameweek 5
Sep 22, 2024 4.30pm
2
2
HT : 1 2
FT Etihad Stadium
  • Erling Haaland 9' goal
  • Ederson 23' yellowcard
  • Ruben Dias 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Bernardo Silva 90'+1' yellowcard
  • John Stones 90'+8' goal
  • Pep Guardiola 90'+8' yellowcard
  • goal Riccardo Calafiori 22'
  • yellowcard Leandro Trossard 34'
  • goal Gabriel Magalhaes 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Thomas Partey 45'+7'
  • redcard Leandro Trossard 45'+8'
  • yellowcard Myles Lewis-Skelly 65'
  • yellowcard Declan Rice 83'
  • yellowcard Gabriel Jesus 90'+6'
Premier League Gameweek 30
Mar 31, 2024 4.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Etihad Stadium
  • yellowcard Gabriel Jesus 67'
  • yellowcard David Raya 79'
Premier League Gameweek 8
Oct 8, 2023 4.30pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Emirates Stadium
  • Jorginho 11' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Martinelli 86' goal
  • Gabriel Jesus 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Bernardo Silva 23'
  • yellowcard Mateo Kovacic 29'
  • yellowcard Ederson 90'+3'

Build-up

Injuries & Suspensions
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