National League South | Gameweek 17
Nov 6, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
The Mill Field

Aveley
2 - 1
Hemel Hemps.

Ibie (62'), H. (72')
FT(HT: 0-0)
J. (89' pen.)
Coverage of the National League South clash between Aveley and Hemel Hempstead Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aveley

All competitions
Last Game: Aveley 2-0 Weston
Saturday, November 4 at 3pm in National League South

Hemel Hempstead Town

All competitions
Last Game: Hemel Hemps. 2-1 Dartford
Saturday, October 28 at 3pm in National League South

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aveley win with a probability of 52.73%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Hemel Hempstead Town had a probability of 22.62%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aveley win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.78%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a Hemel Hempstead Town win it was 0-1 (7.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aveley would win this match.

Result
AveleyDrawHemel Hempstead Town
52.73% (1.29 1.29)24.65% (0.489 0.49)22.62% (-1.778 -1.78)
Both teams to score 50.29% (-3.545 -3.55)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.55% (-3.691 -3.69)51.44% (3.689 3.69)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.74% (-3.309 -3.31)73.25% (3.31 3.31)
Aveley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.52% (-0.91300000000001 -0.91)19.47% (0.914 0.91)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.66% (-1.516 -1.52)51.33% (1.516 1.52)
Hemel Hempstead Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.46% (-3.65 -3.65)37.54% (3.651 3.65)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.68% (-3.761 -3.76)74.32% (3.762 3.76)
Score Analysis
    Aveley 52.73%
    Hemel Hempstead Town 22.62%
    Draw 24.64%
AveleyDrawHemel Hempstead Town
1-0 @ 11.96% (1.37 1.37)
2-0 @ 9.78% (0.864 0.86)
2-1 @ 9.59% (-0.065999999999999 -0.07)
3-0 @ 5.34% (0.328 0.33)
3-1 @ 5.23% (-0.191 -0.19)
3-2 @ 2.56% (-0.371 -0.37)
4-0 @ 2.18% (0.075 0.07)
4-1 @ 2.14% (-0.143 -0.14)
4-2 @ 1.05% (-0.186 -0.19)
Other @ 2.91%
Total : 52.73%
1-1 @ 11.71% (0.25 0.25)
0-0 @ 7.31% (1.02 1.02)
2-2 @ 4.7% (-0.526 -0.53)
Other @ 0.93%
Total : 24.64%
0-1 @ 7.16% (0.356 0.36)
1-2 @ 5.74% (-0.461 -0.46)
0-2 @ 3.51% (-0.173 -0.17)
1-3 @ 1.88% (-0.362 -0.36)
2-3 @ 1.53% (-0.35 -0.35)
0-3 @ 1.15% (-0.182 -0.18)
Other @ 1.65%
Total : 22.62%

How you voted: Aveley vs Hemel Hemps.

Aveley
80.0%
Draw
20.0%
Hemel Hempstead Town
0.0%
5