National League North | Gameweek 40

Mar 22, 2025 at 3pm UK

The Chorley Group Victory Park Stadium

Chorley
2 - 0
Alfreton

Calveley (2', 20')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Coverage of the National League North clash between Chorley and Alfreton Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chorley

All competitions

Last Game: Needham Market 2-1 Chorley
Saturday, March 15 at 3pm in National League North

Goals
for

Alfreton Town

All competitions

Last Game: Alfreton 1-1 Darlington
Tuesday, March 18 at 7.45pm in National League North

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 54%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 21.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.83%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.44%), while for an Alfreton Town win it was 0-1 (6.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chorley would win this match.

Result
Chorley	Draw	Alfreton Town
54% ( -0.05)	24.06% ( 0.02)	21.94% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 51.24% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.23% (

-0.06)

49.77% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.22% (

-0.06)

71.77% (

0.06)

Chorley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.65% (

-0.04)

18.34% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.54% (

-0.07)

49.45% (

0.07)

Alfreton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.75% (

-0.01)

37.25% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.96% (

-0.01)

74.03% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Chorley 53.99%

Alfreton Town 21.94%

Draw 24.06%

Chorley	Draw	Alfreton Town
1-0 @ 11.58% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.83% ( -0) 2-1 @ 9.7% ( -0) 3-0 @ 5.55% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.49% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.71% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.36% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.15% ( -0) Other @ 3.31% Total : 53.99%	1-1 @ 11.44% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.79% ( -0) Other @ 0.99% Total : 24.06%	0-1 @ 6.75% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.65% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.86% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.58% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.1% ( 0) Other @ 1.68% Total : 21.94%