National League North | Gameweek 44
Apr 6, 2024 at 3pm UK
The Silverlands
Chorley

Buxton
3 - 1
Chorley

De Girolamo (36' pen.), Shiels (56'), Hunt (73')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Wilson (73')
Coverage of the National League North clash between Buxton and Chorley.

Form, Standings, Stats

Buxton

All competitions
Last Game: Hereford 2-2 Buxton
Monday, April 1 at 3pm in National League North

Chorley

All competitions
Last Game: Chorley 2-0 Blyth Spartans
Monday, April 1 at 3pm in National League North

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 41.43%. A win for Buxton had a probability of 33.09% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.82%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Buxton win was 1-0 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.

Result
BuxtonDrawChorley
33.09% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)25.47% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)41.43% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Both teams to score 55.45% (0.012 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.64% (0.012 0.01)48.36% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.5% (0.010999999999999 0.01)70.5% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Buxton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.18% (0.013999999999996 0.01)27.82% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.58% (0.016000000000005 0.02)63.41% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Chorley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.82% (0.0019999999999953 0)23.18% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.93% (0.0019999999999953 0)57.07%
Score Analysis
    Buxton 33.09%
    Chorley 41.43%
    Draw 25.47%
BuxtonDrawChorley
1-0 @ 8.25% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
2-1 @ 7.72% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-0 @ 5.28% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-1 @ 3.29% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 2.41% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 2.25% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 1.05% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 33.09%
1-1 @ 12.06%
0-0 @ 6.45% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-2 @ 5.64% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-3 @ 1.17% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 25.47%
0-1 @ 9.43% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-2 @ 8.82%
0-2 @ 6.89% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 4.3%
0-3 @ 3.36% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-3 @ 2.75% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-4 @ 1.57%
0-4 @ 1.23%
2-4 @ 1%
Other @ 2.1%
Total : 41.43%

Head to Head
Dec 12, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 22
Chorley
3-2
Buxton
Calveley (28'), Ubaezuonu (63'), Ellis (81')
Sampson (45')
De Girolamo (18'), Wright (74')
Bapaga (45')
Feb 25, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 35
Chorley
2-2
Buxton
Hall (70', 80' pen.)
Poole (45+3'), Clarke (72')
Jan 10, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 17
Buxton
2-2
Chorley
Jackson (49'), Simms (90+7')
Smith (30'), Hall (61' pen.)