Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Buxton win with a probability of 49.91%. A win for Southport had a probability of 26.11% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Buxton win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.59%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest Southport win was 1-0 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.