Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chester FC win with a probability of 36.96%. A win for Buxton had a probability of 35.72% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chester FC win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.02%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest Buxton win was 1-0 (10.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chester FC would win this match.