| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 30 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | New York City FC | 30 | 14 | 46 |
| 5 | Orlando City | 28 | -5 | 42 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 38.63%. A win for Charlotte FC had a probability of 36.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.08%) and 0-2 (5.96%). The likeliest Charlotte FC win was 2-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Charlotte FC | Draw | New York City FC |
| 36.62% ( | 24.74% ( | 38.63% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.66% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.51% ( | 44.49% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.14% ( | 66.86% ( |
| Charlotte FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.06% ( | 23.94% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.84% ( | 58.16% ( |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.12% ( | 22.88% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.37% ( | 56.63% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Charlotte FC | Draw | New York City FC |
| 2-1 @ 8.26% ( 1-0 @ 7.83% ( 2-0 @ 5.6% ( 3-1 @ 3.94% ( 3-2 @ 2.9% ( 3-0 @ 2.67% ( 4-1 @ 1.41% ( 4-2 @ 1.04% ( 4-0 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 2.03% Total : 36.62% | 1-1 @ 11.54% ( 2-2 @ 6.09% ( 0-0 @ 5.48% ( 3-3 @ 1.43% ( Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.74% | 1-2 @ 8.52% ( 0-1 @ 8.08% ( 0-2 @ 5.96% ( 1-3 @ 4.19% ( 2-3 @ 2.99% ( 0-3 @ 2.93% ( 1-4 @ 1.54% ( 2-4 @ 1.1% ( 0-4 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 2.25% Total : 38.63% |