Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New England Revolution win with a probability of 48.69%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 27.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a New England Revolution win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (6.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New England Revolution would win this match.