Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 38.37%. A win for Metz had a probability of 32.89% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.83%) and 0-2 (7.34%). The likeliest Metz win was 1-0 (11.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Metz | Draw | Lorient |
| 32.89% | 28.74% | 38.37% |
| Both teams to score 45.35% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.87% | 61.13% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.91% | 81.09% |
| Metz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.58% | 34.42% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.87% | 71.13% |
| Lorient Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.15% | 30.84% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.87% | 67.13% |
| Score Analysis |
| Metz | Draw | Lorient |
| 1-0 @ 11.32% 2-1 @ 7.1% 2-0 @ 6.04% 3-1 @ 2.53% 3-0 @ 2.15% 3-2 @ 1.49% Other @ 2.27% Total : 32.89% | 1-1 @ 13.31% 0-0 @ 10.61% 2-2 @ 4.18% Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.73% | 0-1 @ 12.48% 1-2 @ 7.83% 0-2 @ 7.34% 1-3 @ 3.07% 0-3 @ 2.88% 2-3 @ 1.64% 1-4 @ 0.9% Other @ 2.21% Total : 38.36% |