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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 38.5%. A win for Bristol Rovers had a probability of 33.14% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.95%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Bristol Rovers win was 1-0 (11.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bristol Rovers | Draw | Newport County |
| 33.14% | 28.36% | 38.5% |
| Both teams to score 46.48% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.25% | 59.76% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.95% | 80.05% |
| Bristol Rovers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.48% | 33.52% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.84% | 70.16% |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.92% | 30.08% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.79% | 66.21% |
| Score Analysis |
| Bristol Rovers | Draw | Newport County |
| 1-0 @ 11.02% 2-1 @ 7.24% 2-0 @ 6.02% 3-1 @ 2.64% 3-0 @ 2.19% 3-2 @ 1.58% Other @ 2.45% Total : 33.14% | 1-1 @ 13.23% 0-0 @ 10.08% 2-2 @ 4.35% Other @ 0.69% Total : 28.35% | 0-1 @ 12.11% 1-2 @ 7.95% 0-2 @ 7.28% 1-3 @ 3.19% 0-3 @ 2.91% 2-3 @ 1.74% 1-4 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.36% Total : 38.5% |