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UEFA Conference League

Basel
Conference League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 27, 2023 at 6.30pm UK
St. Jakob-Park

Basel
1 - 3
Tobol

Barry (25')
Calafiori (45+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Deble (57' pen.), Orazov (62'), Chesnokov (71')
Ilic (44'), Zharynbetov (45+3'), Orazov (62')
Coverage of the Conference League Second Qualifying Round clash between Basel and Tobol.

Form, Standings, Stats

Basel

All competitions
Last Game: St Gallen 2-1 Basel
Saturday, July 22 at 5pm in Swiss Super League

Tobol

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Honka 0-0 Tobol
Thursday, July 20 at 5pm in Europa Conference League
TeamGoals scoredAvg per gameTop scorer
1Lugano33.00Celar
2Servette33.00Bedia
3FC Zurich22.00Katic
4St Gallen22.00Geubbels
5Young Boys22.00Itten
6Basel11.00Frei
7Grasshopper11.00Ndenge
8Lausanne11.00Balde
9Winterthur00.00
10Luzern00.00
11Stade Lausanne-Ouchy00.00
12Yverdon Sport00.00

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 54.1%. A win for Tobol had a probability of 23.38% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.01%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Tobol win was 1-2 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.

Result
BaselDrawTobol
54.1% (-0.113 -0.11)22.52% (0.041 0.04)23.38% (0.069000000000003 0.07)
Both teams to score 58.13% (-0.052 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.48% (-0.111 -0.11)41.51% (0.10700000000001 0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.08% (-0.11 -0.11)63.91% (0.105 0.11)
Basel Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.68% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)15.32% (0.073 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.94% (-0.143 -0.14)44.06% (0.139 0.14)
Tobol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.65% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)31.35% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.29% (0.0030000000000001 0)67.71% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Basel 54.1%
    Tobol 23.38%
    Draw 22.52%
BaselDrawTobol
2-1 @ 9.8% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-0 @ 9.01% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 8.45% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 6.13% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-0 @ 5.29% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.56% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.88% (-0.015 -0.02)
4-0 @ 2.48% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.67% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.08% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
5-0 @ 0.93% (-0.0079999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.83%
Total : 54.1%
1-1 @ 10.45% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-2 @ 5.69% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-0 @ 4.8% (0.023 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.38% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 22.52%
1-2 @ 6.06% (0.013 0.01)
0-1 @ 5.57% (0.027 0.03)
0-2 @ 3.23% (0.016 0.02)
1-3 @ 2.34% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.2%
0-3 @ 1.25% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.73%
Total : 23.38%

How you voted: Basel vs Tobol

Basel
76.9%
Draw
23.1%
Tobol
0.0%
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