Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Gallen win with a probability of 38.83%. A win for Basel had a probability of 37.19% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Gallen win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.22%) and 2-0 (5.61%). The likeliest Basel win was 1-2 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.93%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Gallen would win this match.