Penarol
1 - 0
Cristal

(Penarol win 4-1 on aggregate)

Trindade (40')
Olivera (88')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Madrid (26'), Tavara (56'), Lora (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Penarol and Sporting Cristal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 57.07%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Sporting Cristal had a probability of 19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.32%), while for a Sporting Cristal win it was 0-1 (6.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Penarol in this match.

Result
Penarol	Draw	Sporting Cristal
57.07%	23.93%	19%

Both teams to score 47.34%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.26%

52.74%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.63%

74.37%

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.7%

18.31%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.61%

49.39%

Sporting Cristal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.95%

42.05%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.52%

78.48%

Score Analysis

Penarol 57.06%

Sporting Cristal 19%

Draw 23.93%

Penarol	Draw	Sporting Cristal
1-0 @ 13.07% 2-0 @ 11.09% 2-1 @ 9.61% 3-0 @ 6.28% 3-1 @ 5.44% 4-0 @ 2.67% 3-2 @ 2.36% 4-1 @ 2.31% 4-2 @ 1% 5-0 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.32% Total : 57.06%	1-1 @ 11.32% 0-0 @ 7.7% 2-2 @ 4.16% Other @ 0.75% Total : 23.93%	0-1 @ 6.67% 1-2 @ 4.9% 0-2 @ 2.89% 1-3 @ 1.42% 2-3 @ 1.2% Other @ 1.93% Total : 19%