Cristal
1 - 3
Penarol

(Penarol win 4-1 on aggregate)

Merlo (90')
Madrid (29'), Lora (51')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Alvarez (8'), Torres (19'), Gargano (90+5')
Ceppelini (45+3'), Trindade (50'), Bentancourt (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Sporting Cristal and Penarol, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Cristal win with a probability of 45.71%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 30.41% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Cristal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Penarol win was 1-2 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.

Result
Sporting Cristal	Draw	Penarol
45.71%	23.88%	30.41%

Both teams to score 59.76%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.8%

42.19%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.4%

64.6%

Sporting Cristal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.32%

18.68%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.98%

50.02%

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.49%

26.5%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.3%

61.7%

Score Analysis

Sporting Cristal 45.71%

Penarol 30.41%

Draw 23.88%

Sporting Cristal	Draw	Penarol
2-1 @ 9.25% 1-0 @ 8.31% 2-0 @ 6.97% 3-1 @ 5.17% 3-0 @ 3.9% 3-2 @ 3.44% 4-1 @ 2.17% 4-0 @ 1.63% 4-2 @ 1.44% Other @ 3.43% Total : 45.71%	1-1 @ 11.03% 2-2 @ 6.14% 0-0 @ 4.95% 3-3 @ 1.52% Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.88%	1-2 @ 7.32% 0-1 @ 6.57% 0-2 @ 4.37% 1-3 @ 3.24% 2-3 @ 2.72% 0-3 @ 1.93% 1-4 @ 1.08% 2-4 @ 0.9% Other @ 2.28% Total : 30.41%