Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guangzhou win with a probability of 45.88%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 29.85% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guangzhou win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guangzhou would win this match.
