Championship

Championship | Gameweek 38

Mar 20, 2021 at 3pm UK

Bet365 Stadium

Stoke
1 - 0
Derby

Brown (74')
Smith (21')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Cresswell (88')

Reaction

Derby County's manager Wayne Rooney before the match on March 6, 2021

Wayne Rooney laments Derby's "lack of aggression" in Stoke loss

The Rams are without a win in seven matches.

Mar 20, 18:18

The Match

Match Report

The Rams are without a win since February 23 and sit just five points above the bottom three.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Stoke City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 40.15%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.74% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.91%) and 2-1 (7.89%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (11.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Stoke City in this match.

Result
Stoke City	Draw	Derby County
40.15%	29.1%	30.74%

Both teams to score 43.82%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.25%

62.75%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.72%

82.28%

Stoke City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.41%

30.59%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.17%

66.83%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.13%

36.87%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.34%

73.65%

Score Analysis

Stoke City 40.14%

Derby County 30.74%

Draw 29.1%

Stoke City	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 13.35% 2-0 @ 7.91% 2-1 @ 7.89% 3-0 @ 3.12% 3-1 @ 3.12% 3-2 @ 1.56% 4-0 @ 0.93% 4-1 @ 0.92% Other @ 1.35% Total : 40.14%	1-1 @ 13.33% 0-0 @ 11.27% 2-2 @ 3.94% Other @ 0.56% Total : 29.1%	0-1 @ 11.25% 1-2 @ 6.65% 0-2 @ 5.62% 1-3 @ 2.21% 0-3 @ 1.87% 2-3 @ 1.31% Other @ 1.83% Total : 30.74%

How you voted: Stoke vs Derby

Stoke City

49.0%

Draw

41.2%

Derby County

9.8%