Champions League

Champions League | Round of 16

Aug 8, 2020 at 8pm UK

Allianz Arena

Bayern
4 - 1
Chelsea

Lewandowski (10' pen., 84'), Perisic (24'), Tolisso (76')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Abraham (44')
Caballero (8'), Palmieri (43')

Reaction

Frank Lampard looks dejected as Chelsea lose to Bayern Munich in the Champions League on August 8, 2020

Chelsea manager Frank Lampard turns attention to transfer market following Bayern Munich defeat

The Bundesliga champions won 4-1 on the night and 7-1 on aggregate.

Aug 8, 23:01

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 47.74%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 32.07% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.86%) and 3-2 (5.34%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-2 (6.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Bayern Munich	Draw	Chelsea
47.74%	20.19%	32.07%

Both teams to score 74.81%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

76.94%

23.05%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

57.66%

42.33%

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.26%

10.74%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.3%

34.69%

Chelsea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.81%

16.19%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.33%

45.67%

Score Analysis

Bayern Munich 47.74%

Chelsea 32.07%

Draw 20.19%

Bayern Munich	Draw	Chelsea
2-1 @ 7.88% 3-1 @ 5.86% 3-2 @ 5.34% 2-0 @ 4.33% 1-0 @ 3.88% 4-1 @ 3.27% 3-0 @ 3.22% 4-2 @ 2.98% 4-3 @ 1.81% 4-0 @ 1.8% 5-1 @ 1.46% 5-2 @ 1.33% Other @ 4.6% Total : 47.74%	2-2 @ 7.17% 1-1 @ 7.06% 3-3 @ 3.24% 0-0 @ 1.74% Other @ 0.97% Total : 20.19%	1-2 @ 6.43% 2-3 @ 4.35% 1-3 @ 3.9% 0-1 @ 3.17% 0-2 @ 2.88% 2-4 @ 1.98% 1-4 @ 1.78% 0-3 @ 1.75% 3-4 @ 1.47% Other @ 4.36% Total : 32.07%