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Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 20
Dec 26, 2022 at 2.30pm UK
The Oval
Bala Town logo

Caernarfon
1 - 5
Bala Town

Thomas (5')
Williams (30')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Kay (10'), Nalatche Mendes (34'), Wall (51'), Shannon (65'), Davies (90+2')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Bala Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Flint Town 2-1 Caernarfon
Friday, December 23 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Bala Town

All competitions
Last Game: Bala Town 2-1 Airbus UK
Friday, December 23 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bala Town win with a probability of 63.91%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 16.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bala Town win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.92%) and 0-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.41%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 2-1 (4.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bala Town would win this match.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawBala Town
16.08% (0.079000000000001 0.08) 20.02% (0.184 0.18) 63.91% (-0.25700000000001 -0.26)
Both teams to score 54.01% (-0.453 -0.45)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.06% (-0.687 -0.69)40.94% (0.694 0.69)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.67% (-0.704 -0.7)63.33% (0.71 0.71)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.47% (-0.32 -0.32)38.53% (0.32700000000001 0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.72% (-0.308 -0.31)75.28% (0.315 0.31)
Bala Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.86% (-0.27200000000001 -0.27)12.14% (0.279 0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.26% (-0.584 -0.58)37.74% (0.592 0.59)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 16.08%
    Bala Town 63.9%
    Draw 20.02%
Caernarfon TownDrawBala Town
2-1 @ 4.49% (0.013 0.01)
1-0 @ 4.46% (0.101 0.1)
2-0 @ 2.13% (0.03 0.03)
3-2 @ 1.5% (-0.025 -0.02)
3-1 @ 1.43% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.07%
Total : 16.08%
1-1 @ 9.41% (0.112 0.11)
2-2 @ 4.73% (-0.037 -0.04)
0-0 @ 4.68% (0.146 0.15)
3-3 @ 1.06% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 20.02%
0-2 @ 10.39% (0.1 0.1)
1-2 @ 9.92% (0.0089999999999986 0.01)
0-1 @ 9.86% (0.203 0.2)
0-3 @ 7.31% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-3 @ 6.97% (-0.07 -0.07)
0-4 @ 3.85% (-0.047 -0.05)
1-4 @ 3.68% (-0.078 -0.08)
2-3 @ 3.32% (-0.064 -0.06)
2-4 @ 1.75% (-0.053 -0.05)
0-5 @ 1.63% (-0.038 -0.04)
1-5 @ 1.55% (-0.05 -0.05)
Other @ 3.67%
Total : 63.9%

Head to Head
Apr 18, 2022 2.30pm
Caernarfon
0-2
Bala Town

Donohue (55')
Simpson (80')
Evans (55'), Ebbe (75')
Feb 12, 2022 5.15pm
Caernarfon
3-3
Bala Town
Faux (49'), Bradley (71'), Jones (84')
Donohue (37')
Ebbe (14', 44'), Evans (86')
Smith (90'), Evans (90+3')
Feb 4, 2022 7.45pm
Bala Town
3-0
Caernarfon
Ebbe (36'), Shannon (71', 90+5')
Smith (75')

Hughes (29'), Bailey (55'), Thomas (62'), Jones (82')
Bailey (56')
May 4, 2021 7.45pm
Caernarfon
3-0
Bala Town
Cleworth (11', 45'), Bradley (54')

Stephens (52'), Smith (69'), Smith (79')
Apr 17, 2021 5.15pm
Bala Town
5-2
Caernarfon
Venables (20', 89'), Spittle (57'), Evans (69', 90+3')
Evans (14'), Venables (35'), Spittle (45+2'), A (45+2'), A (45+3')
Bickerstaff (33'), Hayes (45+2' pen.)
Edwards (36'), M (56')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont18124235122340
2The New SaintsNew Saints17120545202536
3Cardiff MUCardiff MU199462922731
4Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest188642091130
5Caernarfon TownCaernarfon188462727028
6Barry Town UnitedBarry188462932-328
7Bala TownBala Town1851032318525
8Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay186572419523
9Newtown AFCNewtown185492238-1619
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town1952122337-1417
11Briton Ferry1742112133-1214
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth1831141445-3110
> Welsh Premier League Full Table


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