Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bala Town win with a probability of 58.18%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 18.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bala Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.73%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.92%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 0-1 (6.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bala Town would win this match.