Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 38.02%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 33.32% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.82%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 0-1 (11.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.