Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zorya Luhansk win with a probability of 57.45%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Mariupol had a probability of 19.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zorya Luhansk win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.05%) and 1-2 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.75%), while for a Mariupol win it was 1-0 (5.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zorya Luhansk would win this match.