Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 52.34%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Modena had a probability of 21.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.56%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a Modena win it was 0-1 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Spezia in this match.

Result
Spezia	Draw	Modena
52.34% ( 0.14)	26.03% ( 0)	21.63% ( -0.15)

Both teams to score 45.24% (

-0.19)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.5% (

-0.15)

57.5% (

0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.71% (

-0.12)

78.29% (

0.12)

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.93% (

-0)

22.07% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.59% (

-0)

55.41% (

Modena Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.05% (

-0.24)

41.95% (

0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.61% (

-0.21)

78.39% (

0.21)

Score Analysis

Spezia 52.32%

Modena 21.63%

Draw 26.03%

Spezia	Draw	Modena
1-0 @ 13.98% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 10.56% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.18% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.32% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.63% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.01% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.75% ( -0) Other @ 2.89% Total : 52.32%	1-1 @ 12.15% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.26% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 3.99% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.63% Total : 26.03%	0-1 @ 8.04% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.13% Total : 21.63%