Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Catanzaro win with a probability of 40.8%. A win for Modena had a probability of 32.07% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Catanzaro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Modena win was 0-1 (9.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.