Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fakel win with a probability of 38.66%. A win for Khimki had a probability of 32.91% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fakel win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.95%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Khimki win was 0-1 (11.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.

Result
Fakel	Draw	Khimki
38.66% ( -0.22)	28.43% ( 0.25)	32.91% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 46.24% (

-0.71)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.96% (

-0.88)

60.04% (

0.88)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.73% (

-0.67)

80.26% (

0.67)

Fakel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.88% (

-0.56)

30.12% (

0.56)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.73% (

-0.68)

66.27% (

0.68)

Khimki Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.17% (

-0.47)

33.83% (

0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.5% (

-0.52)

70.5% (

0.52)

Score Analysis

Fakel 38.65%

Khimki 32.91%

Draw 28.43%

Fakel	Draw	Khimki
1-0 @ 12.22% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 7.95% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.18% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 2.93% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 0.95% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.35% Total : 38.65%	1-1 @ 13.25% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 10.19% ( 0.33) 2-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.68% Total : 28.43%	0-1 @ 11.04% ( 0.22) 1-2 @ 7.18% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 5.99% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.39% Total : 32.91%