Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 61.7%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Khimki had a probability of 16.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.74%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a Khimki win it was 0-1 (5.64%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Krasnodar would win this match.