Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 79.8%. A draw had a probability of 14.5% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 5.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.89%) and 3-0 (12.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.55%), while for a Fakel win it was 0-1 (2.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.