Primeira Liga | Gameweek 4

Sep 1, 2024 at 3.30pm UK

Estadio da Madeira

Nacional
2 - 0
Farense

Penha (43'), Aguiar Tomich (90+2')
Falcao (63'), Butzke (89'), Aguiar Tomich (90+2'), Aguiar Tomich (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Jorge (51'), Barbosa (67'), Esteves (67')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Nacional and SC Farense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Arouca 1-0 Nacional
Sunday, August 25 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

SC Farense

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Farense 0-5 Sporting Lisbon
Friday, August 23 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 46.56%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 29.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 1-2 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	SC Farense
46.56% ( 0.15)	23.87% ( 0.05)	29.57% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 59.27% (

-0.3)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.38% (

-0.34)

42.63% (

0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.97% (

-0.33)

65.03% (

0.34)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.5% (

-0.07)

18.51% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.27% (

-0.12)

49.73% (

0.12)

SC Farense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.73% (

-0.3)

27.27% (

0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.29% (

-0.39)

62.71% (

0.39)

Score Analysis

Nacional 46.56%

SC Farense 29.57%

Draw 23.87%

Nacional	Draw	SC Farense
2-1 @ 9.33% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 7.18% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 5.25% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.04% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.41% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.21% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.48% Total : 46.56%	1-1 @ 11.06% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.06% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.05% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.87%	1-2 @ 7.19% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 6.56% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 4.26% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.11% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.97% Total : 29.57%