Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 16

Dec 11, 2021 at 3pm UK

Stamford Bridge

Chelsea
3 - 2
Leeds

Mount (42'), Jorginho (58' pen., 90+4' pen.)
James (34'), Mount (60')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Raphinha (28' pen.), Gelhardt (83')
Firpo (42'), Shackleton (53'), Klich (69'), Meslier (90+3'), Llorente (90+6')

Reaction

Chelsea head coach Thomas Tuchel after his side's win over Malmo on November 2, 2021.

Thomas Tuchel: 'Chelsea needed luck to beat Leeds United'

Head coach Thomas Tuchel admits that Chelsea were "lucky" to claim a 3-2 victory against Leeds United in Saturday's Premier League fixture.

Dec 11, 18:00

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 69.27%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Leeds United had a probability of 12.54%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.61%), while for a Leeds United win it was 0-1 (3.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.

Result
Chelsea	Draw	Leeds United
69.27%	18.19%	12.54%

Both teams to score 50.85%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.65%

40.35%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.28%

62.72%

Chelsea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.45%

10.55%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.72%

34.28%

Leeds United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.85%

43.15%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.58%

79.42%

Score Analysis

Chelsea 69.26%

Leeds United 12.54%

Draw 18.19%

Chelsea	Draw	Leeds United
2-0 @ 11.51% 1-0 @ 10.23% 2-1 @ 9.68% 3-0 @ 8.63% 3-1 @ 7.26% 4-0 @ 4.86% 4-1 @ 4.08% 3-2 @ 3.05% 5-0 @ 2.18% 5-1 @ 1.84% 4-2 @ 1.71% Other @ 4.23% Total : 69.26%	1-1 @ 8.61% 0-0 @ 4.55% 2-2 @ 4.07% Other @ 0.96% Total : 18.19%	0-1 @ 3.83% 1-2 @ 3.62% 0-2 @ 1.61% 2-3 @ 1.14% 1-3 @ 1.01% Other @ 1.34% Total : 12.54%