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UEFA Nations League

Montenegro national football team
Nations League | League B
Sep 9, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadion Kraj Bistrice
Wales national football team

Montenegro
1 - 2
Wales

Camaj (73')
Brnovic (49'), Marusic (57')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Moore (1'), Wilson (3')
Ampadu (2'), Williams (49'), Mepham (54'), James (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Nations League clash between Montenegro and Wales, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Montenegro

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Iceland 2-0 Montenegro
Friday, September 6 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Wales

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Wales 0-0 Turkey
Friday, September 6 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 37.74%. A win for Montenegro had a probability of 33.16% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.66%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest Montenegro win was 1-0 (11.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wales would win this match.

Result
MontenegroDrawWales
33.16% (1.06 1.06)29.1% (-0.195 -0.2)37.74% (-0.868 -0.87)
Both teams to score 44.41% (0.725 0.73)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
37.7% (0.788 0.79)62.3% (-0.79 -0.79)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.04% (0.571 0.57)81.96% (-0.57299999999999 -0.57)
Montenegro Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.14% (1.187 1.19)34.86% (-1.188 -1.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.41% (1.23 1.23)71.59% (-1.23 -1.23)
Wales Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.17% (-0.13199999999999 -0.13)31.83% (0.13 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.74% (-0.15 -0.15)68.26% (0.149 0.15)
Score Analysis
    Montenegro 33.16%
    Wales 37.74%
    Draw 29.09%
MontenegroDrawWales
1-0 @ 11.69% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
2-1 @ 7.05% (0.22 0.22)
2-0 @ 6.16% (0.213 0.21)
3-1 @ 2.48% (0.153 0.15)
3-0 @ 2.17% (0.142 0.14)
3-2 @ 1.42% (0.083 0.08)
Other @ 2.19%
Total : 33.16%
1-1 @ 13.38% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 11.09% (-0.33 -0.33)
2-2 @ 4.04% (0.112 0.11)
Other @ 0.58%
Total : 29.09%
0-1 @ 12.7% (-0.42 -0.42)
1-2 @ 7.66% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-2 @ 7.27% (-0.271 -0.27)
1-3 @ 2.92% (-0.023 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.78% (-0.113 -0.11)
2-3 @ 1.54% (0.037 0.04)
Other @ 2.86%
Total : 37.74%

How you voted: Montenegro vs Wales

Montenegro
25.7%
Draw
25.1%
Wales
49.1%
171