Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montenegro win with a probability of 40.47%. A win for Belarus had a probability of 30.77% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montenegro win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.03%) and 0-2 (7.91%). The likeliest Belarus win was 1-0 (10.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Montenegro would win this match.