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Italy national football team
Nations League | League A
Sep 4, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Bosnia and Herzegovina national football team

Italy
1 - 1
Bosnia H'vina

Sensi (67')
Belotti (65'), Zaniolo (80'), Bonucci (80')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Dzeko (57')
Cimirot (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's UEFA Nations League clash between Italy and Bosnia-Herzegovina, including team news and predicted lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 57.38%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Bosnia-Herzegovina had a probability of 20.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 2-0 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win it was 0-1 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.

Result
ItalyDrawBosnia-Herzegovina
57.38%22.4%20.21%
Both teams to score 53.98%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.11%44.89%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.75%67.25%
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.61%15.39%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.81%44.19%
Bosnia-Herzegovina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.79%36.2%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.01%72.99%
Score Analysis
    Italy 57.38%
    Bosnia-Herzegovina 20.21%
    Draw 22.4%
ItalyDrawBosnia-Herzegovina
1-0 @ 10.42%
2-1 @ 9.91%
2-0 @ 9.76%
3-1 @ 6.18%
3-0 @ 6.09%
3-2 @ 3.14%
4-1 @ 2.89%
4-0 @ 2.85%
4-2 @ 1.47%
5-1 @ 1.08%
5-0 @ 1.07%
Other @ 2.51%
Total : 57.38%
1-1 @ 10.59%
0-0 @ 5.57%
2-2 @ 5.04%
3-3 @ 1.06%
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 22.4%
0-1 @ 5.66%
1-2 @ 5.38%
0-2 @ 2.88%
1-3 @ 1.82%
2-3 @ 1.71%
0-3 @ 0.97%
Other @ 1.79%
Total : 20.21%

Head to Head
Nov 15, 2019 7.45pm
Group Stage
Bosnia H'vina
0-3
Italy

Kovacevic (79')
Acerbi (21'), Insigne (37'), Belotti (52')
Bernardeschi (25'), Bonucci (64')
Jun 11, 2019 7.45pm
Group Stage
Italy
2-1
Bosnia H'vina
Insigne (49'), Verratti (86')
Jorginho (14')
Dzeko (32')
Besic (43'), Civic (44'), Saric (62'), Dzeko (93')
rhs 2.0
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