Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 57.38%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Bosnia-Herzegovina had a probability of 20.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 2-0 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win it was 0-1 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.