Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 47.9%. A win for Minnesota United had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.35%) and 2-0 (6.1%). The likeliest Minnesota United win was 1-2 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | Minnesota United |
| 47.9% | 22.09% | 30.01% |
| Both teams to score 66.09% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.22% | 33.78% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.38% | 55.62% |
| San Jose Earthquakes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.37% | 14.63% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.24% | 42.76% |
| Minnesota United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.42% | 22.58% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.81% | 56.19% |
| Score Analysis |
| San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | Minnesota United |
| 2-1 @ 9.08% 1-0 @ 6.35% 2-0 @ 6.1% 3-1 @ 5.82% 3-2 @ 4.33% 3-0 @ 3.91% 4-1 @ 2.8% 4-2 @ 2.08% 4-0 @ 1.88% 5-1 @ 1.08% 4-3 @ 1.03% Other @ 3.45% Total : 47.9% | 1-1 @ 9.45% 2-2 @ 6.76% 0-0 @ 3.31% 3-3 @ 2.15% Other @ 0.43% Total : 22.09% | 1-2 @ 7.03% 0-1 @ 4.92% 0-2 @ 3.66% 1-3 @ 3.49% 2-3 @ 3.35% 0-3 @ 1.81% 1-4 @ 1.3% 2-4 @ 1.25% Other @ 3.21% Total : 30.01% |