Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 49.39%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 26.29% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chicago Fire | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
| 49.39% | 24.33% | 26.29% |
| Both teams to score 55.18% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.14% | 46.87% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.88% | 69.12% |
| Chicago Fire Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.97% | 19.03% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.4% | 50.6% |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.15% | 31.85% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.71% | 68.29% |
| Score Analysis |
| Chicago Fire | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
| 1-0 @ 10.05% 2-1 @ 9.55% 2-0 @ 8.34% 3-1 @ 5.28% 3-0 @ 4.61% 3-2 @ 3.02% 4-1 @ 2.19% 4-0 @ 1.91% 4-2 @ 1.25% Other @ 3.18% Total : 49.38% | 1-1 @ 11.5% 0-0 @ 6.06% 2-2 @ 5.46% 3-3 @ 1.15% Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.32% | 0-1 @ 6.94% 1-2 @ 6.58% 0-2 @ 3.97% 1-3 @ 2.51% 2-3 @ 2.08% 0-3 @ 1.51% Other @ 2.7% Total : 26.29% |