Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 64.29%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Elche had a probability of 13.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.71%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.24%), while for a Elche win it was 0-1 (5.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Elche |
| 64.29% | 22.33% | 13.37% |
| Both teams to score 40.53% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.42% | 55.57% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.25% | 76.74% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.24% | 16.76% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.31% | 46.69% |
| Elche Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.69% | 51.31% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.45% | 85.55% |
| Score Analysis |
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Elche |
| 1-0 @ 15.35% 2-0 @ 13.71% 2-1 @ 9.15% 3-0 @ 8.17% 3-1 @ 5.45% 4-0 @ 3.65% 4-1 @ 2.44% 3-2 @ 1.82% 5-0 @ 1.3% Other @ 3.23% Total : 64.27% | 1-1 @ 10.24% 0-0 @ 8.6% 2-2 @ 3.05% Other @ 0.44% Total : 22.33% | 0-1 @ 5.74% 1-2 @ 3.42% 0-2 @ 1.91% Other @ 2.3% Total : 13.37% |