Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 36.78%. A win for Osasuna had a probability of 33.25% and a draw had a probability of 30%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.3%) and 0-2 (7.2%). The likeliest Osasuna win was 1-0 (12.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Osasuna | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 33.25% | 29.96% | 36.78% |
| Both teams to score 42.13% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.93% | 65.06% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.06% | 83.93% |
| Osasuna Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.71% | 36.28% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.93% | 73.07% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.12% | 33.87% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.46% | 70.54% |
| Score Analysis |
| Osasuna | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 1-0 @ 12.46% 2-1 @ 6.84% 2-0 @ 6.32% 3-1 @ 2.31% 3-0 @ 2.13% 3-2 @ 1.25% Other @ 1.94% Total : 33.25% | 1-1 @ 13.48% 0-0 @ 12.29% 2-2 @ 3.7% Other @ 0.48% Total : 29.95% | 0-1 @ 13.3% 1-2 @ 7.3% 0-2 @ 7.2% 1-3 @ 2.64% 0-3 @ 2.6% 2-3 @ 1.34% Other @ 2.4% Total : 36.78% |