Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.58%. A win for Ponferradina had a probability of 25.01% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.59%) and 0-2 (8.81%). The likeliest Ponferradina win was 1-0 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Ponferradina	Draw	Atletico Madrid
25.01% ( -0.01)	24.41%	50.58% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 53.67% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.72% (

-0.01)

48.28% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.57% (

-0.01)

70.43% (

0.01)

Ponferradina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.35% (

-0.01)

33.65% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.7% (

-0.01)

70.3% (

0.01)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.9%

19.1% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.27%

50.72%

Score Analysis

Ponferradina 25.01%

Atletico Madrid 50.58%

Draw 24.41%

Ponferradina	Draw	Atletico Madrid
1-0 @ 7% 2-1 @ 6.31% ( -0) 2-0 @ 3.81% ( -0) 3-1 @ 2.29% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.9% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.38% ( -0) Other @ 2.31% Total : 25.01%	1-1 @ 11.58% 0-0 @ 6.43% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.41%	0-1 @ 10.64% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 9.59% 0-2 @ 8.81% ( 0) 1-3 @ 5.29% 0-3 @ 4.86% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.88% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.19% 0-4 @ 2.01% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.19% Other @ 3.11% Total : 50.58%