Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leganes win with a probability of 51.91%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Ponferradina had a probability of 22.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leganes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.03%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.03%), while for a Ponferradina win it was 0-1 (7.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leganes would win this match.