Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal II win with a probability of 52.79%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Ponferradina had a probability of 22.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal II win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.82%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Ponferradina win it was 0-1 (7.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.