Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 75.95%. A draw had a probability of 14.1% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 9.95%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.71%) and 0-3 (8.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.17%), while for a Willem II win it was 2-1 (2.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
