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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 70.15%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 12.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 1-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.1%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 70.15% | 17.38% | 12.47% |
| Both teams to score 53.62% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.35% | 36.65% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.19% | 58.81% |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.65% | 9.35% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.49% | 31.51% |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.15% | 40.85% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.58% | 77.42% |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-0 @ 10.72% 2-1 @ 9.6% 1-0 @ 9.05% 3-0 @ 8.47% 3-1 @ 7.59% 4-0 @ 5.02% 4-1 @ 4.5% 3-2 @ 3.4% 5-0 @ 2.38% 5-1 @ 2.13% 4-2 @ 2.01% 5-2 @ 0.95% 6-0 @ 0.94% Other @ 3.38% Total : 70.15% | 1-1 @ 8.1% 2-2 @ 4.3% 0-0 @ 3.82% 3-3 @ 1.01% Other @ 0.15% Total : 17.38% | 1-2 @ 3.63% 0-1 @ 3.42% 0-2 @ 1.53% 2-3 @ 1.28% 1-3 @ 1.08% Other @ 1.52% Total : 12.47% |