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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ win with a probability of 42.87%. A win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 33.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.96%) and 0-2 (6.44%). The likeliest FC Utrecht win was 2-1 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| FC Utrecht | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 33.05% | 24.08% | 42.87% |
| Both teams to score 60.29% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.96% | 42.04% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.56% | 64.44% |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.19% | 24.8% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.61% | 59.38% |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.17% | 19.82% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.1% | 51.9% |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Utrecht | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 7.73% 1-0 @ 6.85% 2-0 @ 4.78% 3-1 @ 3.59% 3-2 @ 2.91% 3-0 @ 2.22% 4-1 @ 1.25% 4-2 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.69% Total : 33.05% | 1-1 @ 11.09% 2-2 @ 6.26% 0-0 @ 4.92% 3-3 @ 1.57% Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.08% | 1-2 @ 8.98% 0-1 @ 7.96% 0-2 @ 6.44% 1-3 @ 4.84% 0-3 @ 3.47% 2-3 @ 3.38% 1-4 @ 1.96% 0-4 @ 1.41% 2-4 @ 1.37% Other @ 3.08% Total : 42.87% |