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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 65.53%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 15.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 1-0 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.76%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 1-2 (4.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 65.53% | 18.97% | 15.5% |
| Both teams to score 56.4% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.85% | 37.15% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.64% | 59.35% |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.39% | 10.61% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.59% | 34.41% |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.1% | 36.9% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.31% | 73.69% |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 2-0 @ 9.85% 2-1 @ 9.82% 1-0 @ 8.78% 3-0 @ 7.37% 3-1 @ 7.35% 4-0 @ 4.13% 4-1 @ 4.12% 3-2 @ 3.66% 4-2 @ 2.05% 5-0 @ 1.86% 5-1 @ 1.85% 5-2 @ 0.92% Other @ 3.76% Total : 65.53% | 1-1 @ 8.76% 2-2 @ 4.9% 0-0 @ 3.91% 3-3 @ 1.22% Other @ 0.19% Total : 18.97% | 1-2 @ 4.36% 0-1 @ 3.9% 0-2 @ 1.95% 2-3 @ 1.63% 1-3 @ 1.45% Other @ 2.21% Total : 15.5% |