Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 51.44%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 26.84% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.75%) and 0-2 (6.72%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (6.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.