Aragua
2 - 6
Gremio

Stephens (48'), Jesus Garcia Camacaro (89'), Garcia (89')
Acuna (67')

FT(HT: 0-3)

Chu (20'), Viana Filho (31'), Viana (31'), Mendes (53'), Pepe (69'), Manoel Alves de Paula (90+2', 90+3'), Manoel (90+2', 90+3')
Vanderson (36'), Henrique (47'), Bobsin (75')

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Aragua and Gremio.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 48.83%. A win for Aragua had a probability of 27.82% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.4%) and 0-2 (7.41%). The likeliest Aragua win was 2-1 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-6 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.

Result
Aragua	Draw	Gremio
27.82%	23.34%	48.83%

Both teams to score 59.85%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.69%

41.3%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.3%

63.69%

Aragua Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.2%

27.8%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.61%

63.38%

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.89%

17.11%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.68%

47.31%

Score Analysis

Aragua 27.82%

Gremio 48.83%

Draw 23.33%

Aragua	Draw	Gremio
2-1 @ 6.88% 1-0 @ 6.09% 2-0 @ 3.9% 3-1 @ 2.94% 3-2 @ 2.59% 3-0 @ 1.66% 4-1 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.82% Total : 27.82%	1-1 @ 10.74% 2-2 @ 6.08% 0-0 @ 4.76% 3-3 @ 1.53% Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.33%	1-2 @ 9.49% 0-1 @ 8.4% 0-2 @ 7.41% 1-3 @ 5.59% 0-3 @ 4.36% 2-3 @ 3.58% 1-4 @ 2.47% 0-4 @ 1.93% 2-4 @ 1.58% Other @ 4.04% Total : 48.83%

Aragua2 - 6Gremio

Data Analysis

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Aragua
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