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Championship | Gameweek 43
Apr 13, 2024 at 3pm UK
The Den
Cardiff City logo

Millwall
3 - 1
Cardiff

Obafemi (9'), Cooper (45+4'), Watmore (90+3')
Longman (69'), Saville (90+1'), Watmore (90+4')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Meite (24')
Collins (69')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Millwall and Cardiff City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Millwall 1-0 Leicester
Tuesday, April 9 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Birmingham 0-1 Cardiff
Wednesday, April 10 at 7.45pm in Championship

We said: Millwall 1-1 Cardiff City

With Cardiff having little choice but to go for a win, this has the potential to be an entertaining game. However, that may change if Millwall score first, and we feel the visitors could have to accept a low-scoring draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 43.15%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 29.9% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 0-1 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Millwall would win this match.

Result
MillwallDrawCardiff City
43.15% (0.036000000000001 0.04) 26.94% (0.016000000000002 0.02) 29.9% (-0.055 -0.05)
Both teams to score 49.51% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.58% (-0.077999999999996 -0.08)55.42% (0.074999999999996 0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.38% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06)76.62% (0.060999999999993 0.06)
Millwall Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.54% (-0.019000000000005 -0.02)25.45% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.71% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)60.28% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Cardiff City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.42% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)33.58% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.78% (-0.087999999999997 -0.09)70.22% (0.084000000000003 0.08)
Score Analysis
    Millwall 43.15%
    Cardiff City 29.9%
    Draw 26.94%
MillwallDrawCardiff City
1-0 @ 11.69% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-1 @ 8.73% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 8% (0.016 0.02)
3-1 @ 3.98% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
3-0 @ 3.65% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.17% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.36% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.25% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.31%
Total : 43.15%
1-1 @ 12.76% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.55% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
2-2 @ 4.77% (-0.010000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.87%
Total : 26.94%
0-1 @ 9.33% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.96% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-2 @ 5.09% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.53% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.85% (-0.006 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.73% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 2.4%
Total : 29.9%

How you voted: Millwall vs Cardiff

Millwall
45.5%
Draw
22.7%
Cardiff City
31.8%
22
Head to Head
Dec 9, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 20
Cardiff
1-0
Millwall
Goutas (78')
Meite (62')

Hutchinson (63'), Leonard (78')
Jan 21, 2023 3pm
Sep 3, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 8
Millwall
2-0
Cardiff
Cresswell (63'), Afobe (90')
Styles (76'), Wallace (88')

Kipre (46'), Romeo (53')
Feb 12, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 32
Millwall
2-1
Cardiff
Wallace (73'), Bennett (82')
Wallace (53')
Bagan (90+1')
Aug 21, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 4
Cardiff
3-1
Millwall
Flint (66', 70'), Morrison (83')
Flint (51'), Nelson (86')
Afobe (76')
Cooper (65')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CLeicester CityLeicester463141189414897
3Leeds UnitedLeeds462791081433890
4Southampton462691187632487
5West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom4621121370472375
6Norwich CityNorwich4621101579641573
7Hull City461913146860870
8Middlesbrough46209177162969
9Coventry CityCoventry4617131670591164
10Preston North EndPreston46189195667-1163
11Bristol City461711185351262
12Cardiff CityCardiff46195225370-1762
13Millwall461611194555-1059
14Swansea CitySwansea461512195965-657
15Watford461317166161056
16Sunderland46168225254-256
17Stoke CityStoke461511204960-1156
18Queens Park RangersQPR461511204758-1156
19Blackburn RoversBlackburn461411216074-1453
20Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds46158234468-2453
21Plymouth ArgylePlymouth461312215970-1151
RBirmingham CityBirmingham461311225065-1550
RHuddersfield TownHuddersfield46918194877-2945
RRotherham UnitedRotherham46512293789-5227


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