Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 42.33%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 31.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (7.6%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-0 (9.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.
