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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 78.22%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for Borussia Monchengladbach had a probability of 8.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 3-0 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.5%) and 3-1 (8.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.47%), while for a Borussia Monchengladbach win it was 1-2 (2.64%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
Result | ||
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Borussia Monchengladbach |
78.22% ( -0.03) | 12.86% ( 0.02) | 8.91% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 58.9% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
75.79% ( -0.08) | 24.2% ( 0.08) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
56.13% ( -0.1) | 43.87% ( 0.11) |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
95.05% ( -0.02) | 4.94% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
80.18% ( -0.06) | 19.81% ( 0.06) |
Borussia Monchengladbach Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.96% ( -0.04) | 38.04% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.19% ( -0.04) | 74.8% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Borussia Monchengladbach |
3-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.5% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 8.24% ( -0) 2-1 @ 8.22% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 6.41% ( -0) 4-1 @ 6.19% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 5.66% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 3.85% ( -0) 5-1 @ 3.72% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 1.93% ( -0) 6-1 @ 1.87% ( -0.01) 5-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 0.96% ( -0) 6-2 @ 0.9% ( -0.01) Other @ 4.48% Total : 78.22% | 1-1 @ 5.47% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 3.97% 0-0 @ 1.88% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0) Other @ 0.26% Total : 12.86% | 1-2 @ 2.64% ( 0) 0-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.28% ( -0) Other @ 3.17% Total : 8.91% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 12 | 30 | 33 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 29 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 18 | 15 | 27 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 24 |
5 | Freiburg | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 24 |
6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 22 |
7 | Werder Bremen | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 22 |
8 | Wolfsburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 21 |
9 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 21 |
10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 21 |
11 | Stuttgart | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 20 |
12 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 17 |
13 | Augsburg | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 16 |
14 | Hoffenheim | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
15 | St Pauli | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 11 |
16 | Heidenheim | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 10 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 37 | -23 | 5 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 3 |
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