Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 64.95%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 15.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.12%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.32%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 0-1 (4.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.