Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 47.11%. A win for Union SG had a probability of 27.9% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Union SG win was 0-1 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.